TLDR
- Bitcoin price recovered to around $106,000 after dipping to $103,078
- BTC faces key resistance at $106,750 and $107,500 levels
- Middle East conflict between Israel and Iran impacted crypto markets
- Bitcoin continues to trade more like a risk asset than a safe haven
- Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday could influence BTC’s next move
Bitcoin has shown resilience in recent days, recovering from a brief dip below $104,000 as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rattled markets. The world’s largest cryptocurrency is now trading near $106,000, finding support above the $105,000 level after testing the $103,200 zone.
The recovery comes after Bitcoin failed to clear the $110,000 resistance zone, which triggered a decline that took prices as low as $103,078. However, buyers stepped in, pushing BTC back above key technical levels.
Technical indicators show that Bitcoin broke above a bearish trend line with resistance at $105,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The price is now trading near the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, suggesting potential for further upside.
On the technical front, immediate resistance lies near $106,000, with a more important barrier at $106,750. This level represents the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from the $110,411 swing high to the $103,078 low.
If Bitcoin can clear the $106,750 resistance, it might target the $107,500 level next. A successful break above this zone could open the path toward $108,000 and potentially retest the $110,000 level.
Geopolitical Factors Weighing on Crypto
The recent price volatility comes amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. The conflict began with Israel attacking several Iranian targets, including nuclear facilities, which prompted Iran to launch missile strikes against major Israeli cities, including Tel Aviv.
These hostilities have dampened risk appetite across financial markets, with cryptocurrencies feeling the impact due to their sensitivity to shifts in market sentiment. Iran has also canceled scheduled nuclear talks with the United States, raising concerns about further escalation.
U.S. President Donald Trump stated that efforts were being made to reduce tensions, but also suggested that Israel and Iran might have to “fight it out,” indicating that a ceasefire remains distant.
While Bitcoin has recovered some losses, traders remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for Wednesday. Though the central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, market participants will be focusing on Chair Jerome Powell’s comments for clues about future monetary policy.
Gold vs. Bitcoin Performance
The heightened geopolitical tensions have pushed gold near its all-time high of $3,500, with the precious metal currently trading around $3,450 per ounce. Gold has gained approximately 30% since the beginning of 2025, benefiting from its status as a traditional safe-haven asset.
In contrast, Bitcoin has gained just 13% year-to-date and is trading about 5.3% below its all-time high of $111,800 reached on May 22. This performance gap highlights that Bitcoin continues to behave more like a risk asset similar to equities rather than a safe haven like gold.
Analysts note that Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. equity markets remains strong, with BTC prices moving in tandem with stock market futures. As U.S. equity futures rebounded from Friday’s sell-off, Bitcoin followed suit with its own recovery.
Market experts suggest that as long as Bitcoin holds above the $95,000 to $100,000 support range, it could potentially retest the $112,000 record high before targeting the $116,000 to $120,000 region.
The broader cryptocurrency market has tracked Bitcoin’s movements, with Ethereum rising 2.7% to $2,603.70 and XRP increasing 1.3% to $2.1815. Other altcoins such as Cardano and Solana have also posted gains of 2.1% and 6.9%, respectively.
Meme tokens have seen modest gains as well, with Dogecoin adding 0.7% and the TRUMP token rising 1.1%.
Reports indicate that President Trump has benefited from the crypto market, with Reuters stating he reported more than $600 million in income in 2024 from cryptocurrency, golf clubs, and licensing deals. The president holds assets worth at least $1.6 billion, with crypto making a major contribution to his wealth.
Specifically, Trump reported $57.35 million in income from token sales at his World Liberty venture, though his crypto holdings have faced criticism for potential conflicts of interest, as policy changes under his administration have supported crypto prices.
Bitcoin’s immediate price outlook will likely be influenced by both the ongoing Middle East situation and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. While some analysts believe BTC could retest its all-time high if support levels hold, others note that in the short term, oil and gold may continue moving in the opposite direction to equities and Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $106,581.8, up 0.5% in the last 24 hours.
